Telecosum 2008

I have the great pleasure to be writing today from Lake George , NY where the annual Telecosum event is taking place.  It is an event sponsored by George Gilder and Steve Forbes to bring together big thinkers in technology and telecommunications.  Earlier today I sat in on a panel discussion, The Exaflood: Managing the coming digital deluge.   Panelist Andrew Odlyzko spoke about his perspective on internet traffic growth disputing other assertions that traffic is growing at as much as 100% year-over-year.  He believes that while yes, traffic is growing, the rate of growth is slowing.   Bob Metcalfe raised the idea that, "if you build it, they will come" pointing out that we didn't know what applications would develop in building the initial version of the internet, why would we wait to find the application before upgrading.  Johna Til Johnson pointed to her study that looks at supply and demand independently and determines that by 2010, demand for internet traffic will outpace supply in 2010. Lane Patterson split the difference in estimating traffic growth.  He believes we will see a growth rate of more like 75%.  All said, the entire panel agrees the Exaflood is coming, the question that remains open for debate is how the telcos and cable companies will manage it.